Addis Fortune (Addis Ababa)
October 24, 2006
amrat G. Giorgis
The gargantuan Airbus 380 landed successfully in Bole Airport last week, to the delight of local dignitaries. But in 60 years of history, Ethiopian Airlines has never once purchased an Airbus. But this does not mean that the national airline and the European supplier have not spent many long hours in meetings and otherwise courting each other. Maybe not too far in the future, Airbus' moment in Ethiopia will finally come.
With his trademark witty remarks, Ethiopian Airlines chief, Girma Wake, remained bemused as to whether there is any chance for his company to acquire Airbus A380, the largest aircraft the world has seen to date.
"For us to dream to have something like that in the immediate future is not likely," he told members of the press on Thursday, October 19, in a joint press conference he gave with Airbus officials, inside the new cargo terminal. "If the Sheraton refuses to let us have room, we may consider it for a hotel."
Jokes aside, Girma felt pleased to see the A380 landing at the Bole International Airport on Monday, October 16. He was pleased to see Ethiopians exposed to "what is outside in the world".
Amidst uncertainties, this super jumbo jet successfully landed at 5:20pm, to conduct a five-day test flight cruising in high altitude airport with 2,500m above see level. According to Etienne Tarnowski, one of the two test pilots, Addis was picked for it has the right altitude and temperature, factors required for technical reasons in the process of certifying the aircraft for commercial purpose.
One of the five aircrafts of its model, the jumbo jet that came to Addis was fitted with new engine manufactured by Alliance Engine, a European firm.
"We are here to study and assess the behaviour of the engine in high altitude and take data on its performance," said Mr. Tarnowski.
The pilots performed over six takeoffs and landing during the week. To the delight of Ethiopia's aviation authorities, Tarnowski told the media he found Bole International Airport to have "a perfect runway" and the taxiway to be in "a very good shape".
The sense of pride by the authorities is deep. A series of visits by President Girma W. Giorgis and Seyoum Mesfin and Junadin Sado, ministers of Foreign Affairs and Transport and Communications, respectively, reflected that.
"Our facility has proven to be capable of handling even the largest aircraft in the world," said Alemayehu Tekle, general manager of the Ethiopian Airports Enterprise. "We are proud of our airport."
For a landing fee said to be more than 14,000 dollars, the airport indeed managed to entertain the biggest aircraft ever manufactured with a net weight of 560,000Kg and a width of 80m. The aircraft left the airport with no reported damage to the facilities, with the exception of a broken signal light during a turn-around on the taxiway.
"We have given the Enterprise our insurance details," said one of the three members of Airbus' advance mission.
Enterprise managers, however, feel that the damage is Very negligible in the face of what A380 appearance to their airport would do in terms of international exposure. It is the first African airport to receive this huge aircraft, whose making and delivery became a source of international controversy, starting from its original inception.
Minister of Transport and Communications, Junadin Sado, had a lighter moment with Ethiopian Airlines CEO, Girma Wake, before a visit inside Airbus' A380. They were accompanied by one of the two Airbus test pilots, Etienne Tarnowski, and Hadi Akoum, vice president of Sales for Southern Africa and Indian Ocean.
Relatively young compared to its archrival aircraft manufacturers, the American Boeing, the European Airbus has a different analysis on how demand in the aviation industry will evolve in the coming two decades. This is ironic because their respective projections of the volume of business are almost identical.
Both manufacturers hardly disagree on the 5.3pc growth of the industry, almost tripling in 20 years. This will require the making of 17,300 new passenger and freight aircrafts with a value of close to two trillion dollars. Their differences rather lie on what sort of aircrafts will be needed by the industry.
Airbus gambles on larger aircraft that could fly thousands of kilometres, carrying over 500 passengers. This, its officials argue, will enable airlines to offer comfort due to added space, and at a much lower cost to individual passengers. The company claims the new aircraft is too irresistible for it offers airlines a long-haul aircraft that consumes less than three litres of fuel per passenger over 100Km, a consumption as good as any regular car.
"The A380's efficiency and advanced technology results in 15 to 20pc lower seat-mile costs," said a press statement Airbus issued last month. "Its range is 10pc greater than that of other large aircraft. Quite simply, the A380 will provide passengers on major long-haul routes like London to Singapore and Los Angeles to Sydney with a new way of flying."
Executives at Boeing have a different outlook. They see passengers reluctant to fly long distances such as from Chicago to Sydney, prefering shorter distances. They also see airport administrations across the world little prepared to handle not only such a gigantic aircraft, but also the influx of people that come off all at once. The amount of investment countries are required to turn their airports compatible to the landing of A380 and the crowd created inside airports and in front of immigration posts are too much trouble to go for any aircraft that carries over 300 passengers, Boeing executives believe.
Yet, close to 16 airlines, including those based in the United States such as UPS and Federal Express, have placed 159 orders to date. If certification is successfully obtained, Singapore Airlines will be the first operator to use this aircraft, although the largest order, 43 aircrafts, has been placed by Emirates.
Whether or not delivery will meet deadline is a subject of international discussion. Delays in manufacturing have subjected Airbus' parent company, the European Aeronautic, Defence and Space Company (EADS), to a seven billion dollar loss in market capitalization, and led the replacement of its chief executive officer by Louis Gallois, the second boss in just 10 months.
Airliners that have ordered A380 are being paid compensation for the delay, while some of them are even threatening to cancel their orders, according to international reports. No African airline is to benefit from this windfall, for no one in Africa has placed an order for this aircraft.
Nevertheless, Airbus claims to have a 56pc lead on Boeing when it comes to the African market, which accounts two per cent of the world air traffic and three per cent of the global commercial passenger fleet. It has 130 aircrafts operated by 23 airlines across the continent, including three of the four largest: South African, Egypt and Kenyan.
Although Tarnowski told members of the press last week that he sees Addis as a friendly environment for they have had similar test flights before with A320, and consider Ethiopia as "close to our heart", its national carrier has never acquired a single aircraft manufactured by Airbus to date.
It had a close call two years ago when it introduced its midsize plane, A350, designed to rival Boeing's 787, aka Dreamliner. In spite of reported pressure by European leaders on the Ethiopian Prime Minister, Ethiopian negotiators were never convinced A350 would be a best bet when analysed in 10 years forecast.
"In fact, they had given us a wonderful offer in price," an Ethiopian official recalls. "We are not convinced that the economic analysis was in our favour, thus did not dare touch it."
Ethiopian negotiators were adamant that A350 had little to offer in terms of costs - fuel consumption, maintenance and depreciation - when compared to Boeing's 787, that the American giant describes it a "game changer".
Understandably, the news that Ethiopian was to conclude the purchase deal for 10 Boeing 787, with delivery date to be completed in 2011, was devastating to Airbus marketers. They were about to break the Boeing monopoly on one of Africa's celebrated airlines it watched closely for over half a century.
"It was a neck to neck competition," recalled CEO Girma, who was then new in his current position, replacing Bisrat Negatu.
Luckily, his technicians were vindicated when Airbus came out with a painful discloser during the Paris air show in July 2005 that it would postpone the launching of A350. And recently, the European aircraft manufacturer abandoned the making of this model and decided to introduce a newer version, A350XWB, whose development is estimated to cost 10 billion dollars. It will carry 270 passengers in three-class configuration and will cruise as fast as the A380 that is now under testing.
When, and if, delivered by 2012, Airbus promised this model to provide a 21st Century solutions to the global aviation industry.
Says Airbus: "Designed to have longer maintenance intervals with lower tasks and less man-hours, cash operating costs will be up to 10pc lower than competing 787 models and 20pc lower than current generation competitors."
It just sound likes Airbus is answering the complaints made by Ethiopian negotiators two years ago. But Ethiopian has not given up hope on Airbus, according to Girma.
"If Airbus is to come with concerted plans, the door is open," he told the media, in the joint press conference with Airbus executives. "If they are to come with a model that will compete Boeing, we will be happy to consider it."
And they have already come to knock on his door: Three delegates from the company, including Hadi Akoum, vice president of Sales for Southern Africa and Indian Ocean, and Somas Appavou, sales director for Africa and Indian Sub-ocean, were in Addis a month and half ago to conduct a presentation to senior officials of the Ethiopian Airlines.
"They have changed so much on paper," said one of these senior executives.
Another senior executive who attended the meeting, however, felt Airbus has yet to take this project off the drawing board. His company is interested to acquire five new aircrafts beyond 2011, to add what will be a fleet side of 33 aircrafts by then.
It will be but a few of the 640 aircraft African airlines will need in the next 20 years, at a cost of 60 billion dollars, according to global market forecast. Aviation experts anticipate that this will be driven by a strong demand due to increasing trade ties and inflow of tourists from Europe, China, the Middle East and North America.
Nonetheless, Ethiopian officials do caution the likelihood of delays with the delivery of the newly developed A350-XWB.
"They are confronted with the delay on A380 that pushes the deadline on A350-XWB even further than 2012," said a senior management staff of Ethiopian. "We do not think it is wise to start negotiations on something that is not yet firm."
Airbus officials who came to Addis to attend the landing of their largest aircraft last week, are promising to come back next month, after putting their acts together, and perhaps tap on the door CEO Girma has promised is open for them.
